NFL power rankings
All 32 teams, sorted by a rating that mixes their record with how much they outscore people. I don’t move anyone up or down by hand. The formula is at the bottom of the page if you want to check my math.
How this is calculated The formula, and why
What goes in. Each team’s record plus points for and against, straight from the standings. That’s it. No polls, no betting odds, no opinions (mine included).
Two parts. Results is just win percentage (a tie counts as half). Margin uses points for and against to estimate how often a team “should” be winning (the Pythagorean expectation thing, if you’ve seen it in baseball).
Why margin matters. 17 games isn’t many, and one-score games can go either way on a missed kick. A team that keeps winning by 14 is probably better than one squeaking out 3-point wins, so margin gets almost half the weight.
When it updates. Once every game in the week is final (so usually Tuesday morning after MNF). The up/down arrows compare with last week’s list. If two teams tie on rating, point differential per game breaks it. The one-line blurb under each team is generated from its numbers, I don’t write those.
Rating = 100 × (0.55 × Results + 0.45 × Margin)
- Results
- (wins + ½ ties) ÷ games played
- Margin
- PF2.37 ÷ (PF2.37 + PA2.37)
Scale is 0–100. A team with no games yet sits at 50.